Simulation-Based Evaluation of Resilience-Enhancing Measures for Transportation Systems Subject to Hydrometeorological Hazard Events

Abstract

This paper identifies the essential requirements for simulation-based approaches such that these approaches serve as effective decision support tools for evaluating the effectiveness of climate-adaptation measures that enhance the resilience of transport systems against hydrometeorological events. These needs include the ability to capture the effect of different types of measures, the spatial and temporal possibilities of their execution, their aggregate effect when executed together, and the effect of uncertainties in their evaluation. A novel simulation-based approach that meets the identified needs is presented and its application in a case study is showcased. The presented approach uses a set of interacting probabilistic models to generate numerous scenarios each representing chains of cascading events from the occurrence of a possible hazard event, the impact on the transport network, the restoration of the infrastructure, and the temporal evolution of its service. The models enable capturing the effect of interventions on the intensity of different events and their ensuing consequences. The case study includes a road network in Switzerland, comprising 605km of roads and 121 bridges, subject to rainfall events leading to flooding and landslide. Twenty-one portfolios of measures combining four specific types are considered and their effect on resilience was evaluated. Those include flood protection walls, stormwater retention basins, raising road embankments, and temporary flood barriers. The proposed approach enables infrastructure managers to have an appropriate quantitative evaluation to better devise and plan interventions with the aim of cost efficiently improving resilience.