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Cross‐country risk quantification of extreme wildfires in Mediterranean Europe
Item type: Journal Article
Meier, Sarah; Strobl, Eric; Elliott, Robert J.R.; et al. (2023)
We estimate the country‐level risk of extreme wildfires defined by burned area (BA) for Mediterranean Europe and carry out a cross‐country comparison. To this end, we avail of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) geospatial data from 2006 to 2019 to perform an extreme value analysis. More specifically, we apply a point process characterization of wildfire extremes using maximum likelihood estimation. By modeling covariates, we also evaluate potential trends and correlations with commonly known factors that drive or affect wildfire occurrence, such as the Fire Weather Index as a proxy for meteorological conditions, population density, land cover type, and seasonality. We find that the highest risk of extreme wildfires is in Portugal (PT), followed by Greece (GR), Spain (ES), and Italy (IT) with a 10‐year BA return level of 50'338 ha, 33'242 ha, 25'165 ha, and 8'966 ha, respectively. Coupling our results with existing estimates of the monetary impact of large wildfires suggests expected losses of 162–439 million € (PT), 81–219 million € (ES), 41–290 million € (GR), and 18–78 million € (IT) for such 10‐year return period events.
A conserved mechanism of membrane fusion in nuclear pore complex assembly
Item type: Journal Article
Fischer, Jonas S.; Wojtynek, Matthias; Kumar, Ashutosh; et al. (2026)
The nuclear pore complex (NPC) serves as the central transport gateway between nucleus and cytoplasm. NPC biogenesis requires the assembly of over 500 proteins culminating in the fusion of the inner and outer nuclear membranes. The mechanism of membrane fusion is unknown. Here, we elucidate how Brl1 and Brr6 mediate membrane fusion in S. cerevisiae . Our data suggest that both proteins form ring-shaped complexes with membrane-remodeling activity. Brl1 localizes to NPC assembly sites via a nuclear export sequence and interacts with Brr6 across the nuclear envelope through conserved hydrophobic loops. Disrupting this interaction blocks fusion and halts NPC assembly. Molecular dynamics simulations suggest that the Brl1-Brr6 complex drives membrane fusion by forming a channel across the bilayers enabling lipid exchange. Phylogenetic analyses and functional experiments in human cells and D. melanogaster establish CLCC1 as the NPC fusogen in metazoans. Together, our results uncover a conserved membrane fusion mechanism in eukaryotes.
The impact of wildfire smoke exposure on excess mortality and later-life socioeconomic outcomes: the Great Fire of 1910
Item type: Journal Article
Meier, Sarah; Strobl, Eric; Elliott, Robert J.R. (2025)
The Great Fire of 1910 in the northwestern United States burnt more than 1.2 million hectares in just two days and stands as one of the largest wildfires ever recorded. While it is known for having led to the introduction of a rigorous fire suppression regime that lasted for much of the twentieth century, it also generated a considerable amount of smoke far beyond the burnt areas that is likely to have impacted the health of those exposed. This paper examines the short- and long-term impact of this fire-sourced smoke pollution on children, combining historical data with smoke emission and dispersion modelling. The econometric results indicate a 119% increase in excess mortality during the week of the fire and a decrease of 4–14% in later-life socioeconomic status scores 20 and 30 years after the event. This research offers novel insights into wildfire smoke repercussions on health and long-run human capital formation in a setting where avoidance behaviour was minimal.
The regional economic impact of wildfires: Evidence from Southern Europe
Item type: Journal Article
Meier, Sarah; Elliott, Robert J.R.; Strobl, Eric (2023)
We estimate the impact of wildfires on the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment of regional economies in Southern Europe from 2011 to 2018. To this end we match Eurostat economic data with geospatial burned area perimeters based on satellite imagery for 233 Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) 3 level regions in Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece. Our panel fixed effects instrumental variable estimation results suggest an average contemporary decrease in a region’s annual GDP growth rate of 0.11–0.18% conditional on having experienced at least one wildfire. For an average wildfire season this leads to a yearly production loss of 13–21 billion euros for Southern Europe. The impact on the employment growth rate is heterogeneous across economic activity types in that there is a decrease in the average annual employment growth rate for activities related to retail and tourism (e.g., transport, accommodation, food service activities) of 0.09–0.15%, offset by employment growth in insurance, real estate, administrative, and support service related activities of 0.13–0.22%.
A summary of burial depth-dependent properties of claystone-related lithologies: Implications for assessing their suitability as host rock
Item type: Journal Article
Kaufhold, Stephan; Kus, Jolanta; Manzel, Tobias; et al. (2026)
Claystones and related sedimentary lithologies are considered as potential host rocks for the storage of high-level radioactive waste. The properties of claystones, which govern their barrier performance, can vary significantly between sites and formations. This study summarizes relevant barrier properties, with a particular emphasis on those dependent on burial history and maximum rock temperatures. Given the large number of properties influencing barrier quality, ranking them by relative importance is necessary. The predictable, non-linear behaviour of certain characteristics with geological burial depth allows for a substantial reduction in the number of properties requiring determination. Based on a set of representative repository-relevant rock lithologies, a case study comparison of potential claystone host rocks is presented. Hydraulic conductivity was assumed to be the most critical barrier property, with optimal values in rocks that reached peak diagenesis at burial depths exceeding 2000 m. To further distinguish claystone types and related lithologies in terms of barrier suitability, either cation-exchange capacity, reflecting the content of smectitic layers, or maximum temperature of palaeoburial heating (Tmaxgeo) can be used as an example. Pore-size distribution, correlating with the average particle distance, was particularly suited to estimating maximum burial depth, as it is less affected by thermal anomalies, pore fluid composition or cementation effects. Overall, combining key barrier properties with burial depth-dependent behaviour enables efficient assessment and comparison of claystone formations for deep high-level radioactive waste disposal. A quantitative comparison of various claystones, however, requires establishing a reactive solute transport model that simulates radionuclide release fluxes at specific timescales.