Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices
dc.contributor.author
Fundel, Felix
dc.contributor.author
Jörg-Hess, Stefanie
dc.contributor.author
Zappa, Massimiliano
dc.date.accessioned
2019-05-13T13:20:55Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-10T14:38:45Z
dc.date.available
2019-05-13T13:20:55Z
dc.date.issued
2013
dc.identifier.issn
1027-5606
dc.identifier.issn
1607-7938
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/hess-17-395-2013
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/64428
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000064428
dc.description.abstract
Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.
The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2013-01-29
ethz.journal.title
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ethz.journal.volume
17
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
1
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
ethz.pages.start
395
en_US
ethz.pages.end
407
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.nebis
001881462
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-10T14:41:18Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59365068a3ddb33117
ethz.ecitpid
pub:102400
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-12T14:48:24Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2023-02-06T17:06:11Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=Monthly%20hydrometeorological%20ensemble%20prediction%20of%20streamflow%20droughts%20and%20corresponding%20drought%20indices&rft.jtitle=Hydrology%20and%20Earth%20System%20Sciences&rft.date=2013&rft.volume=17&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=395&rft.epage=407&rft.issn=1027-5606&1607-7938&rft.au=Fundel,%20Felix&J%C3%B6rg-Hess,%20Stefanie&Zappa,%20Massimiliano&rft.genre=article&rft_id=info:doi/10.5194/hess-17-395-2013&
Files in this item
Publication type
-
Journal Article [130130]