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Author
Date
2012-11-21Type
- Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of ~150,000 scientists. Our results show that i) among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii) future citations of a scientist’s published papers can be predicted accurately (r^2=0.80 for a 1-year prediction, P<0.001) but iii) future citations of future work are hardly
predictable. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000061814Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
PLoS ONEVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
PLOSMore
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ETH Bibliography
yes
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