Abstract
Land-cover changes can affect the climate by altering the water and energy balance of the land surface. Numerous modelling studies have indicated that alterations at the land surface can result in considerable changes in precipitation. Yet land-cover-induced precipitation changes remain largely unconstrained by observations. Here we use an observation-based continental-scale statistical model to show that forestation of rain-fed agricultural land in Europe triggers substantial changes in precipitation. Locally, we find an increase in precipitation following forestation, in particular in winter, which is supported by a paired rain-gauge analysis. In addition, forests are estimated to increase downwind precipitation in most regions during summer. By contrast, the downwind effect in winter is positive in coastal areas but near neutral and negative in Continental and Northern Europe, respectively. The combined local and non-local effects of a realistic reforestation scenario, constrained by sustainability safeguards, are estimated to increase summer precipitation by 7.6 ± 6.7% on average over Europe (0.13 ± 0.11 mm d–1), potentially offsetting a substantial part of the projected precipitation decrease from climate change. We therefore conclude that land-cover-induced alterations of precipitation should be considered when developing land management strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000493339Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Nature GeoscienceVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
NatureSubject
Land cover and land use; Precipitation; Hydrology; Climate change; EuropeOrganisational unit
03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
03854 - Wernli, Johann Heinrich / Wernli, Johann Heinrich
Funding
172715 - CLimate IMPacts of Utilizing Land in Switzerland and Europe (CLIMPULSE) (SNF)
Related publications and datasets
Is supplemented by: https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000448232
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