Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998
dc.contributor.author
Ball, William T.
dc.contributor.author
Chiodo, Gabriel
dc.contributor.author
Abalos, Marta
dc.contributor.author
Alsing, Justin
dc.contributor.author
Stenke, Andrea
dc.date.accessioned
2020-09-07T11:50:47Z
dc.date.available
2020-09-07T04:46:27Z
dc.date.available
2020-09-07T11:50:47Z
dc.date.issued
2020
dc.identifier.issn
1680-7324
dc.identifier.issn
1680-7375
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/438711
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000438711
dc.description.abstract
The stratospheric ozone layer shields surface life from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Following the Montreal Protocol ban on long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), rapid depletion of total column ozone (TCO) ceased in the late 1990s, and ozone above 32 km is now clearly recovering. However, there is still no confirmation of TCO recovery, and evidence has emerged that ongoing quasi-global (60∘ S–60∘ N) lower stratospheric ozone decreases may be responsible, dominated by low latitudes (30∘ S–30∘ N). Chemistry–climate models (CCMs) used to project future changes predict that lower stratospheric ozone will decrease in the tropics by 2100 but not at mid-latitudes (30–60∘). Here, we show that CCMs display an ozone decline similar to that observed in the tropics over 1998–2016, likely driven by an increase in tropical upwelling. On the other hand, mid-latitude lower stratospheric ozone is observed to decrease, while CCMs that specify real-world historical meteorological fields instead show an increase up to present day. However, these cannot be used to simulate future changes; we demonstrate here that free-running CCMs used for projections also show increases. Despite opposing lower stratospheric ozone changes, which should induce opposite temperature trends, CCMs and observed temperature trends agree; we demonstrate that opposing model–observation stratospheric water vapour (SWV) trends, and their associated radiative effects, explain why temperature changes agree in spite of opposing ozone trends. We provide new evidence that the observed mid-latitude trends can be explained by enhanced mixing between the tropics and extratropics. We further show that the temperature trends are consistent with the observed mid-latitude ozone decrease. Together, our results suggest that large-scale circulation changes expected in the future from increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) may now already be underway but that most CCMs do not simulate mid-latitude ozone layer changes well. However, it is important to emphasise that the periods considered here are short, and internal variability that is both intrinsic to each CCM and different to observed historical variability is not well-characterised and can influence trend estimates. Nevertheless, the reason CCMs do not exhibit the observed changes needs to be identified to allow models to be improved in order to build confidence in future projections of the ozone layer.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2020-08-20
ethz.journal.title
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ethz.journal.volume
20
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
16
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Atmos. Chem. Phys.
ethz.pages.start
9737
en_US
ethz.pages.end
9752
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
The Overlooked Role of Stratospheric Ozone in forcing Northern Hemispheric climate (TORSO)
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03517 - Peter, Thomas (emeritus) / Peter, Thomas (emeritus)
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03517 - Peter, Thomas (emeritus) / Peter, Thomas (emeritus)
ethz.grant.agreementno
180043
ethz.grant.fundername
SNF
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100001711
ethz.grant.program
Ambizione
ethz.relation.isNewVersionOf
10.3929/ethz-b-000384699
ethz.date.deposited
2020-09-07T04:46:37Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2020-09-07T11:51:14Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2024-02-02T11:59:27Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
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true
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