Tracing North Atlantic Oscillation forecast errors to stratospheric origins
dc.contributor.author
Kolstad, Erik W.
dc.contributor.author
Wulff, Christoph O.
dc.contributor.author
Domeisen, Daniela
dc.contributor.author
Woollings, Tim
dc.date.accessioned
2020-09-30T04:58:43Z
dc.date.available
2020-08-07T20:35:18Z
dc.date.available
2020-08-10T07:52:35Z
dc.date.available
2020-09-30T04:58:43Z
dc.date.issued
2020-11-01
dc.identifier.issn
0894-8755
dc.identifier.issn
1520-0442
dc.identifier.other
10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0270.1
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/430689
dc.description.abstract
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main driver of weather variability in parts of Eurasia, Greenland, North America and North Africa on a range of timescales. Successful extended-range NAO predictions would equate to improved predictions of precipitation and temperature in these regions. It has become clear that the NAO is influenced by the stratosphere, but as this downward coupling is not fully reproduced by all forecast models, the potential for improved NAO forecasts has not been fully realized. Here, an analysis of 21 winters of subseasonal forecast data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) monthly forecasting system is presented. By dividing the forecasts into clusters according to their errors in North Atlantic sea level pressure 15–30 days into the forecasts, we identify relationships between these errors and the state of the stratospheric polar vortex when the forecasts were initialized. A key finding is that the model overestimates the persistence of both the negative NAO response following a weak polar vortex and the positive NAO response following a strong polar vortex. A case in point is the sudden stratospheric warming in early 2019, which was followed by five consecutive weeks of an overestimation of the negative NAO regime. A consequence on the ground was too cold temperature predictions for northern Europe. Another important finding is that the model appears to misrepresent the gradual downward impact of stratospheric vortex anomalies. This suggests that an improved representation and prediction of stratosphere–troposphere coupling in models might yield substantial benefits for extended-range weather forecasting in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
American Meteorological Society
en_US
dc.subject
North Atlantic Oscillation
en_US
dc.subject
Stratosphere-troposphere coupling
en_US
dc.subject
Climate prediction
en_US
dc.subject
Seasonal forecasting
en_US
dc.title
Tracing North Atlantic Oscillation forecast errors to stratospheric origins
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.date.published
2020-08-07
ethz.journal.title
Journal of Climate
ethz.journal.volume
33
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
21
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
J. Climate
ethz.pages.start
9145
en_US
ethz.pages.end
9157
en_US
ethz.grant
Improving the Prediction of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Weather and Climate – From Theory to Application
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Boston, MA
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::09612 - Domeisen, Daniela / Domeisen, Daniela
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::09612 - Domeisen, Daniela / Domeisen, Daniela
en_US
ethz.grant.agreementno
170523
ethz.grant.agreementno
170523
ethz.grant.fundername
SNF
ethz.grant.fundername
SNF
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100001711
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100001711
ethz.grant.program
SNF-Förderungsprofessuren Stufe 2
ethz.grant.program
SNF-Förderungsprofessuren Stufe 2
ethz.date.deposited
2020-08-07T20:35:38Z
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Metadata only
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2020-09-30T04:58:54Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2024-02-02T12:11:50Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=Tracing%20North%20Atlantic%20Oscillation%20forecast%20errors%20to%20stratospheric%20origins&rft.jtitle=Journal%20of%20Climate&rft.date=2020-11-01&rft.volume=33&rft.issue=21&rft.spage=9145&rft.epage=9157&rft.issn=0894-8755&1520-0442&rft.au=Kolstad,%20Erik%20W.&Wulff,%20Christoph%20O.&Domeisen,%20Daniela&Woollings,%20Tim&rft.genre=article&rft_id=info:doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0270.1&
Files in this item
Files | Size | Format | Open in viewer |
---|---|---|---|
There are no files associated with this item. |
Publication type
-
Journal Article [130404]