Identifying Key Driving Processes of Major Recent Heat Waves
dc.contributor.author
Wehrli, Kathrin
dc.contributor.author
Guillod, Benoit P.
dc.contributor.author
Hauser, Mathias
dc.contributor.author
Leclair, Matthieu
dc.contributor.author
Seneviratne, Sonia I.
dc.date.accessioned
2020-02-14T18:20:33Z
dc.date.available
2019-12-01T14:23:47Z
dc.date.available
2019-12-02T09:41:33Z
dc.date.available
2020-02-14T18:20:33Z
dc.date.issued
2019-11-27
dc.identifier.issn
0148-0227
dc.identifier.issn
2169-897X
dc.identifier.other
10.1029/2019JD030635
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/381735
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000381735
dc.description.abstract
Heat waves lead to major impacts on human health, food production, and ecosystems. To assess their predictability and how they are projected to change under global warming, it is crucial to improve our understanding of the underlying processes affecting their occurrence and intensity under present‐day climate conditions. Beside greenhouse gas forcing, processes in the different components of the climate system—in particular the land surface, atmospheric circulation, and the oceans—may play a key role in changing the odds for a particular event. This study aims to identify the role of the individual drivers for five heat waves (and, in some cases, of concurrent droughts) in the recent decade. Simulations are performed with the Community Earth System Model using nudging of horizontal atmospheric circulation and prescription of soil moisture. The fully constrained model accurately reproduces how anomalous an event was. Factorial experiments, which force the model toward observations for one or several key components at a time, allow us to identify how much of the observed temperature anomaly of each event can be attributed to each driver. Considering all analyzed events, atmospheric circulation and soil moisture play similarly important roles, each contributing between 20% and 70% to the events' anomalies. This highlights that the role of thermodynamics can be just as important as that of the dynamics for temperature extremes, a possibly underestimated feature. In addition, recent climate change amplified the events and contributed between 10% and 40% of the events' anomalies.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Wiley
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject
heat waves
en_US
dc.subject
extreme events
en_US
dc.subject
global climate models
en_US
dc.subject
atmospheric nudging
en_US
dc.subject
soil moisture prescription
en_US
dc.title
Identifying Key Driving Processes of Major Recent Heat Waves
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2019-11-01
ethz.journal.title
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ethz.journal.volume
124
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
22
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
J. geophys. res., Atmos.
ethz.pages.start
11746
en_US
ethz.pages.end
11765
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
Land-Climate Interactions: Constraints for Droughts and Heatwaves in a Changing Climate
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Hoboken, NJ
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
ethz.grant.agreementno
617518
ethz.grant.fundername
EC
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100000780
ethz.grant.program
FP7
ethz.date.deposited
2019-12-01T14:24:03Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2020-02-14T18:20:44Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2022-03-29T01:00:22Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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