sectorgap: An R Package for Consistent Economic Trend Cycle Decomposition

Abstract

Determining potential output and the output gap—two inherently unobservable variables—is a major challenge for macroeconomists. This paper presents the R package sectorgap, which features a flexible modeling and estimation framework for a multivariate Bayesian state space model identifying economic output fluctuations consistent with subsectors of the economy. The proposed model is able to capture various correlations between output and a set of aggregate as well as subsector indicators. Estimation of the latent states and parameters is achieved using a simple Gibbs sampling procedure and various plotting options facilitate the assessment of the results. An illustrative example with Swiss data outline data preparation, model definition, estimation, and evaluation using sectorgap.