Exchange Rate Transmission and Export Activity at the Firm Level

Abstract

This paper analyses how exchange rate shocks are transmitted at the firm level and establishes a nexus to firm-level export activity. Using precise survey data from a sample of Swiss firms, I find that an appreciation increases the probability of a decrease in firm-level costs, prices and profits. Exchange rate movements are passed through to import prices, absorbed in firm selling prices and lead to adjustments in firm profits. The pattern is non-linear across firms with a varying degree of international exposure. The likelihood of adjustments is increasing in firm-level export share in total turnover. I also show that exchange rate variability affects adjustment probabilities. The analysis suggests that Swiss firms take prices as given. Exchange rate shocks are absorbed through a reduction in both costs and prices, however, these adjustments are not proportional such that overall profits decline during appreciation periods.