Multi-level spatial planning and its influence in shaping urban landscapes: Status and future scenarios for Bucharest

Abstract

Globally, urban regions are undergoing a continuous, highly dynamic process of land change. Spatial planning attempts to design and guide these transformations by bringing together economic, social and environmental aspects from a variety of spatial scales. This implies that the multi-level, multi-sectoral planning systems are characterized by multiple land-use plans and strategic plans, adopted by various authorities. In order to guide sustainable urban transformations, these plans’ visions, goals and projects should be externally consistent on both vertical (among plans from different administrative levels), and horizontal (among plans from various sectors) scales. Nevertheless, their envisioned developments are not always in line with each other, therefore, evaluations of how multi-level spatial planning succeeds in directing sustainable land-use changes should reflect the entire network of plans of an urban region. In Bucharest, the multi-level planning system, which has been in place for 20 years, has been criticized for being inconsistent and poorly coordinated across vertical and horizontal scales. Critics characterize it as a system with many contradictory planning strategies and instruments (from the national to the sub-local levels) and a rather unclear overall vision for urban development. Nonetheless, little is known about the actual contribution of spatial planning to urban transformations. This doctoral thesis aims to reveal the influence of multi-level spatial planning on land change, using the Bucharest region as a case study. To do this, the thesis follows three main directions, focusing on (i) assessing the external consistency among Bucharest’s planning instruments, (ii) evaluating the influence of plans’ external consistency to plan implementation and (iii) identifying the potential of multi-level spatial plans to guide sustainable land-use changes and to meet future land-use demands. The first paper of this thesis (Chapter 3) develops for the first time, a framework for external consistency among spatial plans and tests it with planning instruments of the Bucharest region. The novel framework comprises four categories of external consistency, i.e., references from one plan to another, their identified issues, proposed general measures, and spatialized planning intentions. Once developed, the framework was tested using Social Network Analysis (SNA) on 10 spatial plans, characterizing planning levels from the metropolitan to the sub-local, and planning sectors from land use and transportation to environmental plans. Results indicate that external consistency among Bucharest’s planning instruments is high, especially regarding issues and general measures, but plans are rather poorly aligned for spatialized planning intentions on both vertical and horizontal scales. The analysis showed which plans are prestigious (i.e., the most referenced by others), which are central (i.e., the most connected with others) and which are peripheral to the networks (i.e., the most disconnected from others). The framework for external consistency in combination with the SNA, provided valuable insight into the networks created by plans, and enabled, for the first time, a comparison of the positions of plans within the overall networks with their actual positions in the administration. The second paper of this thesis (Chapter 4) links the external consistency among plans with plan implementation using a novel plan-evaluation approach. This paper tests the hypothesis that a high degree of external consistency among plans supports plan implementation. To test this hypothesis, all spatially explicit projects outlined in seven spatial plans of the Bucharest region were selected, their recurrence in plans identified, and their implementation over the past 20 years assessed. Results indicate that more than 20% of the projects are shared among at least two of the seven plans. However, whereas projects shared between two plans are often implemented, those shared between more than two plans are often still under implementation, even after 20 years. Therefore, the findings confirmed the hypothesis that the recurrence of projects supports implementation. The results also show that reiteration of projects across plans over time, goes hand in hand with delays or even the absence of implementation. The evaluation approach developed in this paper could be a valuable tool for planning, particularly to better mobilize the institutional capacity of planning levels and sectors to commonly design future land uses. The third paper of this thesis (Chapter 5) analyzes the contribution of multi-level spatial planning to land-use changes and its potential to meet future land-use demands. For the purpose of this paper, an innovative procedure was developed whereby strategic planning intentions selected from four spatial plans and weighted based on expert opinion, were integrated into scenario-based land-change simulations. The procedure was tested at two planning levels, namely Bucharest (addressing the city scale) and the Bucharest-Ilfov Development Region (addressing the regional scale). Using the CLUMondo modeling framework, which integrates targeted land-use demands (i.e., living space, built-up areas, green spaces and agricultural areas) and the weighted planning intentions, land uses up to the year 2040 were simulated for both scales. Results indicate that all future land-use demands can be met for all scenarios and scales considered, but that planning will make little or no contribution to the distribution of future land uses. Moreover, simulations integrating planning intentions result in a higher loss of agricultural areas than simulations that do not take plans into consideration. These findings highlight the mismatch between land-use demands and planning intentions and could be the basis of designing and implementing new plans that are better aligned with the actual demands. Overall, the hypotheses tested and methods developed within this doctoral thesis, either taken individually or combined, help advancing land-change science, in particular by strengthening the link between multi-level planning systems and urban transformations. This thesis used plans and spatial data from the Bucharest region, however, all procedures developed here could be implemented in evaluations of urban regions worldwide. The data collected in the context of this thesis and their application are unique and provide a solid basis not only for future research, but also to inform planners and decision-makers in the Bucharest region. The findings provide valuable guidelines for good practice, both in terms of designing and implementing the future generation of plans, and with respect to the future institutional arrangements that would better support the multi-level planning process.