Snow: Hydro-CH2018 synthesis report chapters: “future changes in hydrology“

Abstract

This report was prepared as one of the synthesis report chapters of the Hydro-CH2018 project of the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). An important feature of snow cover is the fact that its volume and duration is subject to large year-to-year fluctuations. As frozen precipitation, snow cover is nothing other than a natural water reservoir that delays precipitation to runoff and is thus of outstanding importance for the seasonal water balance in Switzerland. Over a whole year, approximately 40% (22 km3) of the annual runoff currently comes from snow melting and only 1% from glacier melting. Typically, the snow cover in the Alpine region builds up over the autumn and winter months, reaches its maximum between February and May, depending on the altitude, and dominates the runoff processes during melting in the following spring and summer months.Due to the great dependence on minus temperatures and precipitation, the snow cover reacts sensitively to temperatures above 0° Celsius and more or less precipitation. Due to climate change and the associated warming, the proportion of precipitation that falls as snow decreases measurably. In addition to this reduction in snowfall, the warmer temperatures also cause the snow cover to melt more quickly. The decline in snowfall has so far mainly affected lower altitudes, where winter temperatures often reach positive levels. As climate change progresses, this trend is likely to continue and above all affect higher zones. Even at higher altitudes, the snow cover will then start later, melt away earlier and is increasingly no longer permanently present. This development will also have an effect on the water bodies. Today nival regimes, i.e. regimes shaped by snow, are shifting towards pluvial regimes, i.e. regimes dominated by rain. Overall, winter runoff increases, summer runoff decreases. By the end of the century, the proportion of runoff from snowmelt will decrease throughout Switzerland, albeit to a lesser extent than the proportion from glacier melt.