Learning to Predict Pedestrians for Urban Automated Driving
dc.contributor.author
Völz, Benjamin
dc.contributor.supervisor
Siegwart, Roland
dc.contributor.supervisor
Chli, Margarita
dc.contributor.supervisor
Henn, Rüdiger-Walter
dc.date.accessioned
2020-06-08T07:37:51Z
dc.date.available
2020-06-06T17:08:50Z
dc.date.available
2020-06-08T07:37:51Z
dc.date.issued
2020
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/418654
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000418654
dc.description.abstract
Navigating through densely populated urban areas is one of the most important
challenges for self-driving vehicles. Accurate predictions are required to enable
safe and efficient interactions with other road users. Pedestrians in particular
pose major problems for current state of the art prediction systems. Apart from
well-understood short-term predictions, used for Automatic Emergency Braking
Systems, long-term predictions remain largely unresolved.
In this thesis, we aim to advance pedestrian prediction systems to enable human-
understandable automated driving. In view of a vehicle-centred road infrastructure
with high vehicle speeds and scarce pedestrian crossings, early detection of pedestrian
intentions and movements are the key to enabling such behaviour. These detections
can enable automated vehicles to perform light brake manoeuvres at an early stage
in order to let a pedestrian pass. This can eliminate the need to stop, which could
significantly improve traffic flow and at the same time increase overall safety.
Long-term full trajectory predictions are both costly and error-prone. Therefore
we propose a hierarchical prediction system that splits the prediction into multiple
simplified sub-problems using domain knowledge. Each sub-problem is designed
to predict a meaningful part of pedestrian movement and to detect and remove
pedestrians that are irrelevant for the current scenario as early as possible. Utilizing
the given road geometry to identify crosswalks we first predict the pedestrians’
hidden intent to cross the road. For all crossing pedestrians we then propose a
sparse motion prediction, providing a small set of key figures instead of a full
trajectory. We claim that these domain-specific key figures, namely a time-to-
cross and designated crossing point, are more than sufficient to describe future
pedestrian motions for the planning system of an automated vehicle. To overcome
problems from over-confident single value predictions we propose to utilize Quantile
Regression techniques to predict reasonable uncertainties.
Our evaluations show that we are able to robustly classify the pedestrians’ hidden
intent using both standard and deep learning algorithms. Additionally we show
that our hierarchical prediction system, including the sparse motion prediction,
is suitable for a real-time system integration. With our large real-world dataset,
featuring recordings from different crosswalks and days, we provide an evaluation
regarding prediction accuracy, computational load and generalizability. During this
analysis, we also found indications that it might be possible to transfer trained
models to previously unseen pedestrian crossings if the road geometry has at least
approximately the same pavement dimensions. Furthermore, we show how our
sparse motion prediction can be integrated into a situation-based planning approach
to allow safe and efficient real-time interactions with other traffic participants. For
this we evaluate different interaction scenarios regarding safety, time efficiency and
comfort impairment. We were able to show that in most of the scenarios it is
possible to minimize movement jerks and eliminate the need to stop. The overall
performance is only limited by very high traffic densities.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
ETH Zurich
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/
dc.subject
Automated driving
en_US
dc.subject
Prediction
en_US
dc.subject
Pedestrian
en_US
dc.subject
MACHINE LEARNING (ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE)
en_US
dc.subject
Deep Learning
en_US
dc.title
Learning to Predict Pedestrians for Urban Automated Driving
en_US
dc.type
Doctoral Thesis
dc.rights.license
In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted
dc.date.published
2020-06-08
ethz.size
137 p.
en_US
ethz.code.ddc
DDC - DDC::6 - Technology, medicine and applied sciences::600 - Technology (applied sciences)
en_US
ethz.identifier.diss
26578
en_US
ethz.publication.place
Zurich
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02130 - Dep. Maschinenbau und Verfahrenstechnik / Dep. of Mechanical and Process Eng.::02620 - Inst. f. Robotik u. Intelligente Systeme / Inst. Robotics and Intelligent Systems::03737 - Siegwart, Roland Y. / Siegwart, Roland Y.
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02130 - Dep. Maschinenbau und Verfahrenstechnik / Dep. of Mechanical and Process Eng.::02620 - Inst. f. Robotik u. Intelligente Systeme / Inst. Robotics and Intelligent Systems::03737 - Siegwart, Roland Y. / Siegwart, Roland Y.
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2020-06-06T17:08:58Z
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2020-06-08T07:38:03Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2021-02-15T14:24:57Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=Learning%20to%20Predict%20Pedestrians%20for%20Urban%20Automated%20Driving&rft.date=2020&rft.au=V%C3%B6lz,%20Benjamin&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Learning%20to%20Predict%20Pedestrians%20for%20Urban%20Automated%20Driving
Files in this item
Publication type
-
Doctoral Thesis [30009]