Variability in Transport Microsimulations Investigated With the Multi-Agent Transport Simulation MATSim
Open access
Date
2011-08Type
- Working Paper
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Transport microsimulations are stochastic. Randomness is, for example, introduced by the error terms of discrete choice models, a common component in utility-based microsimulations. This leads to random variability in results at all resolution levels. This paper’s objectives is an analysis of this variability. As a very common and important aggregate measure in transport planning network link volumes are analyzed, based on MATSim simulation experiments. Constrained by modeling and simulation costs, recent large-scale, high-resolution microsimulations are cross-sectional models. When looking at aggregate levels relevant to planning, for common statistics there is relatively little variability over multiple simulation runs. However, these models do not properly account for temporal variability. This is problematic because temporal variability measured in reality is substantial. Thus, considering extension of these cross-sectional microsimulation models to longitudinal models will be necessary in the near future. To support this, the paper also documents first insights about temporal variability and temporal correlations in microsimulations. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-006686329Publication status
publishedJournal / series
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungVolume
Publisher
ETH Zürich, Institut für Verkehrsplanung, Transporttechnik, Strassen- und EisenbahnbauSubject
VERKEHRSMODELLE + VERKEHRSSIMULATION (VERKEHR UND TRANSPORT); TRANSPORT MODELS + TRAFFIC SIMULATION (TRANSPORTATION AND TRAFFIC); MEHRAGENTENSYSTEME (KÜNSTLICHE INTELLIGENZ); MULTI-AGENT SYSTEMS (ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE); ERREICHBARKEIT (VERKEHR UND TRANSPORT); ACCESSIBILITY (TRANSPORTATION AND TRAFFIC)Organisational unit
02610 - Inst. f. Verkehrspl. u. Transportsyst. / Inst. Transport Planning and Systems03521 - Axhausen, Kay W. (emeritus) / Axhausen, Kay W. (emeritus)
02226 - NSL - Netzwerk Stadt und Landschaft / NSL - Network City and Landscape
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
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ETH Bibliography
yes
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