The NAICU and the Phillips Curve – An Approach Based on Micro Data

Abstract

In this paper we propose a straightforward method to derive a non-accelerating inflation capacity utilisation rate (NAICU) based on micro data. We condition the current capacity utilisation of firms on their current and planned price adjustments. The non-accelerating inflation capacity utilisation rate is then defined as the rate where a firm feels no price adjustment pressure. One of the main advantages is that this methodology uses structural aspects and does not make it necessary to operate with –often rather arbitrary– statistical filters. We show that our aggregate NAICU performs remarkably well as an indicator of inflationary pressure in a Phillips curve estimation.