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The Impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Socio-Economic Risks
dc.contributor.author
Liu, Juner
dc.date.accessioned
2024-06-17T08:48:40Z
dc.date.available
2024-06-17T08:48:40Z
dc.date.issued
2023-10-26
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/678579
dc.description.abstract
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important inter-annual signal
of climate variability on the planet. It affects many natural hazards, including tropical
cyclones (TCs), which are known for causing severe economic losses and many
fatalities. However, although research efforts have examined ENSO’s influence on
TC characteristics in different basins, the transfer from findings on ENSO’s impact
on TC hazard into global TC risk assessments has yet to been undertaken. To address
this, in this thesis we assess TC risks on physical assets under ENSO’s influence
on a global scale using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship
(IBTrACS), based on the risk assessment platform CLIMADA. Based on successful
replication of existing state-of-the-art findings on TC characteristics (frequency and
intensity) during historical ENSO events across ocean basins, we found differences
in anomalies of TC risks relative to all years in El Niño years and La Niña years in
the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. We observe higher-than-average 10-
year impact on physical assets in La Niña years, and lower-than-average in El Niño
years in the North Atlantic basin, while a reversed situation shows in the Eastern
Pacific basin. Mexico experiences higher TC damages in the east coast in La Niña
years, and in the west coast in El Niño years, while the United States experience
higher (lower) TC damage in La Niña (El Niño) years. Furthermore, we quantify
the uncertainties of TC landfall locations using probabilistic TC tracks generated by
a random walk algorithm, and find the noise of random tracks dominates in basins
and regions with scarce TC data. Our results show the potential of including climate
variability such as ENSO into TC risk analysis. The quantification of TC risk
anomalies in El Niño and La Niña years not only provide a valuable foundation of
seasonal TC risk prediction for both policy makers and insurance industry, but also
for the establishment of more balanced and diversified multi-hazard risk portfolios.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/
dc.title
The Impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Socio-Economic Risks
en_US
dc.type
Master Thesis
dc.rights.license
In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02723 - Institut für Umweltentscheidungen / Institute for Environmental Decisions::09576 - Bresch, David Niklaus / Bresch, David Niklaus
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02723 - Institut für Umweltentscheidungen / Institute for Environmental Decisions::09576 - Bresch, David Niklaus / Bresch, David Niklaus
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2024-06-17T08:48:40Z
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.doipreview
Yes
en_US
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
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Master Thesis [2047]