Considering technology characteristics to project future costs of direct air capture

Abstract

Several low-carbon technologies, such as solar photovoltaics or batteries, have experienced massive cost reductions in the recent past. However, non-mature technologies will also be required to meet the Paris climate targets. The cost of novel technologies, like direct air capture (DAC) technologies, remains highly uncertain. Here, we introduce a new method to project future costs of novel technologies by assigning empirically grounded experience rates to technology components based on their similarity to mature technologies in terms of design complexity and customization needs. After an ex-post validation of this method, we apply it to three DAC technologies combined with CO2 transport and storage (DACCS) to provide probabilistic estimates of the cost of CO2 net removed. At 1 Gt-CO2/year cumulative capacity, we project DACCS costs at $341/tCO2 ($226–$544 at 90% confidence) for liquid solvent DACCS, $374/tCO2 ($281–$579) for solid sorbent DACCS, and $371/tCO2 ($230–$835) for CaO ambient weathering DACCS.