Assessing the Performance of the European Natural Gas Network for Selected Supply Disruption Scenarios Using Open-Source Information

Abstract

Natural gas covers more than 20% of Europe’s primary energy demand. A potential disruption could lead to supply shortages with severe consequences for the European economy and society. History shows that such a vast and complex network system is prone to exogenous and endogenous disruptions. A dedicated large-scale dataset of the European natural gas network from publicly available information sources is assembled first. The spatial coverage, completeness and resolution allows analyzing the behavior of this geospatial infrastructure network (including consumption) and its components under likely disruptive events, such as earthquakes, and/or technical failures. Using the developed system state simulation engine, the disruption impact is mapped. The results show that storage facilities cannot in all cases compensate for a pipeline disruption. Moreover, critical pipelines, such as the Transitgas pipeline crossing the Alps and the Trans-Mediterranean pipeline bringing natural gas from Northern Africa, are identified. To analyze the pipelines with high impact on the system performance, a detailed scenario analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation resulting in supply grade mapping is conducted and presented for the case of Italy. Overall, it can be concluded that locations with a dead-end, sole supply, and without storage facility nearby, are remarkably exposed to natural gas supply losses.