Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) - Part 2: Future projections
dc.contributor.author
Vanderkelen, Inne
dc.contributor.author
van Lipzig, Nicole P.M.
dc.contributor.author
Thiery, Wim
dc.date.accessioned
2018-11-27T09:05:07Z
dc.date.available
2018-11-09T05:05:40Z
dc.date.available
2018-11-27T09:05:07Z
dc.date.issued
2018-10
dc.identifier.issn
1027-5606
dc.identifier.issn
1607-7938
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/hess-22-5527-2018
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/302244
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000302244
dc.description.abstract
Lake Victoria, the second largest freshwater lake in the world, is one of the major sources of the Nile river. The outlet to the Nile is controlled by two hydropower dams of which the allowed discharge is dictated by the Agreed Curve, an equation relating outflow to lake level. Some regional climate models project a decrease in precipitation and an increase in evaporation over Lake Victoria, with potential important implications for its water balance and resulting level. Yet, little is known about the potential consequences of climate change for the water balance of Lake Victoria. In this second part of a two-paper series, we feed a new water balance model for Lake Victoria presented in the first part with climate simulations available through the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa framework. Our results reveal that most regional climate models are not capable of giving a realistic representation of the water balance of Lake Victoria and therefore require bias correction. For two emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5), the decrease in precipitation over the lake and an increase in evaporation are compensated by an increase in basin precipitation leading to more inflow. The future lake level projections show that the dam management scenario and not the emission scenario is the main controlling factor of the future water level evolution. Moreover, inter-model uncertainties are larger than emission scenario uncertainties. The comparison of four idealized future management scenarios pursuing certain policy objectives (electricity generation, navigation reliability and environmental conservation) uncovers that the only sustainable management scenario is mimicking natural lake level fluctuations by regulating outflow according to the Agreed Curve. The associated outflow encompasses, however, ranges from 14m3day−1 (−85%) to 200m3day−1 (+100%) within this ensemble, highlighting that future hydropower generation and downstream water availability may strongly change in the next decades even if dam management adheres to he Agreed Curve. Our results overall underline that managing the dam according to the Agreed Curve is a key prerequisite for sustainable future lake levels, but that under this management scenario, climate change might potentially induce profound changes in lake level and outflow volume.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) - Part 2: Future projections
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ethz.journal.volume
22
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
10
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
ethz.pages.start
5527
en_US
ethz.pages.end
5549
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ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
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ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
ethz.relation.continues
10.3929/ethz-b-000302227
ethz.date.deposited
2018-11-09T05:05:43Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2018-11-27T09:05:41Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2024-02-02T06:40:46Z
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true
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