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dc.contributor.author
Axel Dreher
dc.contributor.author
Marchesi, Silvia
dc.contributor.author
Vreeland, James Raymond
dc.date.accessioned
2017-12-07T10:42:25Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T17:17:09Z
dc.date.available
2017-12-07T10:42:25Z
dc.date.issued
2007-10
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/124109
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-a-005476320
dc.description.abstract
Using panel data for 157 countries over the period 1999-2005 we empirically investigate the politics involved in IMF economic forecasts. We find a systematic bias in growth and inflation forecasts. Our results indicate that countries voting in line with the US in the UN General Assembly receive lower inflation forecasts. As the US is the Fund's major shareholder, this result supports the hypothesis that the Fund's forecasts are not purely based on economic considerations. We further find inflation forecasts are systematically biased downwards for countries with greater IMF loans outstanding relative to GDP, indicating that the IMF engages in "defensive forecasting". Countries with a fixed exchange rate regime also receive low inflation forecasts. Considering the detrimental effects that inflation can have under such an exchange rate regime, we consider this evidence consistent with the Fund's desire to preserve economic stability.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich
dc.rights.uri
http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/
dc.subject
Economic Forecasts
en_US
dc.subject
Political Influence
en_US
dc.subject
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
en_US
dc.subject
INTERNATIONALER WÄHRUNGSFONDS
en_US
dc.subject
IMF
en_US
dc.title
The Politics of IMF Forecasts
en_US
dc.type
Working Paper
dc.rights.license
In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted
ethz.journal.title
KOF Working Papers
ethz.journal.volume
176
en_US
ethz.size
36 p.
en_US
ethz.code.ddc
DDC - DDC::3 - Social sciences::330 - Economics
en_US
ethz.identifier.nebis
005476320
ethz.publication.place
Zürich
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T17:17:27Z
ethz.source
ECOL
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59366ab4dabaf93045
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593654f74aada12339
ethz.ecolpid
eth:29890
ethz.ecitpid
pub:186552
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-18T10:50:10Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2022-03-28T18:34:54Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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